{"id":20422,"date":"2026-09-15T04:37:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T04:37:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/?p=20422"},"modified":"2026-10-04T21:07:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:07:59","slug":"puerto-vallarta-market-update-september-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/es\/puerto-vallarta-market-update-september-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Actualizaci\u00f3n del mercado de Puerto Vallarta \u2014 Septiembre de 2026: La mayor parte de la apreciaci\u00f3n del a\u00f1o pasado se debi\u00f3 al peso."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Por Neft Rom\u00e1n \u2014 Legacy Vallarta Realty<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El n\u00famero m\u00e1s importante en el mercado de Puerto Vallarta en este momento no es el precio de una propiedad. Es <strong>17.13<\/strong> \u2014 los pesos que se pod\u00edan comprar con un d\u00f3lar el 14 de septiembre de 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Casi todo lo dem\u00e1s sobre lo que la gente discute este mes cobra m\u00e1s sentido una vez que se analiza primero esa cifra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lo que realmente hizo la moneda<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El 4 de septiembre el peso alcanz\u00f3 <strong>16,89 por d\u00f3lar<\/strong>, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde mayo de 2024. Desde entonces ha retrocedido hasta alrededor de 17,13. En los \u00faltimos doce meses el d\u00f3lar ha perdido aproximadamente <strong>6.7%<\/strong> frente al peso, lo que lo sit\u00faa en torno a los 18,35 de hace un a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Las razones no son misteriosas. La producci\u00f3n industrial mexicana aument\u00f3 2,71 TP3T interanual en julio, la inversi\u00f3n fija bruta aument\u00f3 7,71 TP3T en junio, y Banxico ha mantenido su tasa de referencia en <strong>6.50%<\/strong> Mientras que la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. se sit\u00faa en 3,75%. Esta diferencia en las tasas de inter\u00e9s atrae dinero hacia los pesos. La inflaci\u00f3n se sit\u00faa en 3,26% en M\u00e9xico y 3,40% en Estados Unidos, por lo que la diferencia tambi\u00e9n es real en t\u00e9rminos ajustados a la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Los analistas prev\u00e9n actualmente un tipo de cambio de alrededor de 16,94 para finales de este trimestre. Considere esta previsi\u00f3n como cualquier otra: una opini\u00f3n con una fecha l\u00edmite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 efecto tiene eso en el precio que realmente pagas?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aqu\u00ed est\u00e1 la parte que importa si est\u00e1 comprando en d\u00f3lares. Tomemos un condominio listado en <strong>5.200.000 pesos<\/strong> \u2014 aproximadamente el precio medio actual de venta en Puerto Vallarta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Hace un a\u00f1o, a unos 18,35 pesos por d\u00f3lar: <strong>$283.000 USD<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n<li>Hoy, a las 17:13: <strong>$304.000 USD<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El mismo condominio. El mismo precio en pesos. El mismo vendedor, los mismos acabados, la misma vista. <strong>Veinti\u00fan mil d\u00f3lares m\u00e1s.<\/strong> Nadie plante\u00f3 nada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ahora coloca eso junto a los n\u00fameros locales.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aqu\u00ed es donde la cosa se pone inc\u00f3moda, y donde creo que la mayor\u00eda de los comentarios locales se equivocan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El precio medio de venta de condominios en Puerto Vallarta era de alrededor de <strong>$412.500 USD<\/strong> En mayo de 2026, el aumento fue de aproximadamente 61 TP3T interanual. Esa es la cifra que todos los agentes de la ciudad est\u00e1n citando, incluy\u00e9ndome a m\u00ed. Pero el peso se fortaleci\u00f3 alrededor de 71 TP3T durante ese mismo per\u00edodo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Realice los c\u00e1lculos en pesos en lugar de d\u00f3lares y los precios medianos fueron <strong>aproximadamente plano, posiblemente ligeramente inclinado<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lo que significa que la apreciaci\u00f3n que un propietario basado en d\u00f3lares cree haber ganado durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o es, en su mayor parte, <strong>moneda, no mercado<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Advertencia sobre esa conclusi\u00f3n:<\/strong> Esto es un c\u00e1lculo aproximado basado en dos medianas, no un \u00edndice de ventas repetidas. Cada mes presenta una combinaci\u00f3n distinta de propiedades, y la mediana var\u00eda cuando cambia dicha combinaci\u00f3n. Defender\u00eda la tendencia, pero no el uso de decimales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">El n\u00famero de volumen dice lo mismo desde el otro lado.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En mayo de 2026, <strong>85 propiedades<\/strong> Se cerraron transacciones en Puerto Vallarta y Riviera Nayarit, en comparaci\u00f3n con las 155 de mayo de 2025. Esto representa una disminuci\u00f3n de 451 TP3T en transacciones cerradas. El inventario de condominios activos aument\u00f3 aproximadamente 241 TP3T, y un anuncio t\u00edpico ahora permanece en el mercado entre 180 y 330 d\u00edas, con un promedio cercano a los 250.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un mercado donde el precio en d\u00f3lares de todo subi\u00f3 7% sin que un solo vendedor moviera un dedo es un mercado donde los compradores extranjeros dudan. Esa duda se refleja en una hoja de c\u00e1lculo con un 45% menos de cierres de operaciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Si est\u00e1s comprando<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Obt\u00e9n todos los n\u00fameros en ambas monedas.<\/strong> Tu presupuesto es variable y, por lo tanto, tu dep\u00f3sito, los honorarios del notario, la tasaci\u00f3n y los gastos de cierre tambi\u00e9n var\u00edan.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Pregunte cu\u00e1ndo se fij\u00f3 el precio.<\/strong> Un anuncio que lleva publicado desde el invierno pasado ten\u00eda un precio basado en un tipo de cambio diferente al que usted est\u00e1 pagando hoy.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Utilice el inventario.<\/strong> Un mayor n\u00famero de anuncios y 250 d\u00edas en el mercado te dan margen de negociaci\u00f3n que no exist\u00eda en 2022. <a href=\"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/es\/puerto-vallarta-real-estate-more-inventory-2026\/\">As\u00ed es como se ve realmente.<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>No intente predecir el momento oportuno para cambiar la moneda.<\/strong> Los profesionales que trabajan en mesas de negociaci\u00f3n se equivocan en esto. <a href=\"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/es\/what-the-peso-dollar-exchange-rate-means-for-your-purchase\/\">Esta publicaci\u00f3n explica qu\u00e9 puedes controlar en su lugar.<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Si est\u00e1s vendiendo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si el precio que pides se basa en lo que tu vecino obtuvo en d\u00f3lares en 2024, averigua cu\u00e1l era el tipo de cambio el d\u00eda en que se cerr\u00f3 la operaci\u00f3n. Era un mercado diferente en un sentido muy espec\u00edfico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sus compradores reciben pagos principalmente en d\u00f3lares estadounidenses y d\u00f3lares canadienses, y su poder adquisitivo aqu\u00ed disminuy\u00f3 aproximadamente 71 TP3T en un a\u00f1o, sin que sea culpa suya ni de ellos. El mercado no est\u00e1 rechazando su propiedad; simplemente est\u00e1 ajustando el precio de su moneda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eso no significa bajar el precio un siete por ciento. Significa <a href=\"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/es\/what-your-puerto-vallarta-property-is-worth\/\">precio en comparaci\u00f3n con lo que realmente est\u00e1 cerrando ahora mismo<\/a>, no en comparaci\u00f3n con lo que un comparable cotizaba hace dieciocho meses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lo que estoy viendo entre ahora y enero<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>El diferencial Banxico-Fed.<\/strong> La diferencia entre 6,50% y 3,75% es lo que mantiene al peso al alza. Si esa diferencia disminuye, el c\u00e1lculo anterior se invierte.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Temporada alta.<\/strong> Entre octubre y abril es cuando regresa el flujo de compradores extranjeros. Esta es la primera temporada en la que la moneda juega en su contra a este nivel.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Si los vendedores se adaptan.<\/strong> Con un tiempo promedio en el mercado de 250 d\u00edas, las propiedades que se vendan este invierno ser\u00e1n las que tengan un precio de 17 pesos en lugar de las que tengan un precio de 20 pesos.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Una nota honesta<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Me dedico a la venta de bienes ra\u00edces. No soy analista de divisas, ni tampoco lo es quien les presenta un pron\u00f3stico de tipo de cambio con total seriedad. Nada de lo que se presenta aqu\u00ed constituye asesoramiento financiero, y ninguna de estas cifras sustituye la necesidad de realizar sus propias transacciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lo que puedo hacer es presentarle las cifras espec\u00edficas en ambas monedas antes de que firme nada, incluidos los costos que la mayor\u00eda de la gente olvida hasta que el notario los lee en voz alta. <a href=\"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/es\/buying-costs-puerto-vallarta\/\">Estos se detallan aqu\u00ed.<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/wa.me\/523227797718?text=Hi%20Neft%2C%20I%20read%20the%20September%20market%20update.%20Can%20you%20run%20my%20numbers%20in%20both%20currencies%3F\">Env\u00edame un mensaje por WhatsApp.<\/a><\/strong> con el edificio o el vecindario que est\u00e1s mirando y har\u00e9 los c\u00e1lculos compar\u00e1ndolo con lo que realmente ha cerrado all\u00ed este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fuentes y fechas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tipos de cambio: Trading Economics, USD\/MXN al 14 de septiembre de 2026. Tasas de pol\u00edtica monetaria e inflaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico y Estados Unidos: lecturas de agosto de 2026. N\u00famero de listados regionales y precios de venta promedio: estudio de mercado de AMPI Riviera Nayarit, tercer trimestre de 2025, an\u00e1lisis de Teseo Data Lab. N\u00famero de transacciones cerradas, precio de venta promedio, inventario y d\u00edas en el mercado: cifras regionales de MLS para mayo de 2026, seg\u00fan lo informado en <a href=\"https:\/\/legacyvallartarealty.com\/es\/puerto-vallarta-real-estate-market-update-mid-2026\/\">Nuestra actualizaci\u00f3n de mediados de 2026<\/a>. Cada cifra en esta publicaci\u00f3n lleva la fecha en que fue medida, porque en este mercado un n\u00famero sin fecha no es informaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udcd0 Gu\u00eda completa por escrito: <a href=\"\/es\/puerto-vallarta-market-update-september-2026\/\">legacyvallartarealty.com<\/a><br>\ud83d\udcc5 Reserva una llamada de 30 minutos: <a href=\"https:\/\/meetings.hubspot.com\/neft\">reuniones.hubspot.com\/neft<\/a><br>\ud83d\udcac O env\u00edame un mensaje por WhatsApp: <a href=\"https:\/\/wa.me\/523227797718\">wa.me\/523227797718<\/a><br>\ud83c\udfe0 M\u00e1s gu\u00edas sobre la vida en Puerto Vallarta: <a href=\"\/es\/blog\/\">legacyvallartarealty.com\/blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Legacy Vallarta Realty \u2014 Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014 Neft Rom\u00e1n, Legacy Vallarta Realty<br>Afiliada de AMPI Puerto Vallarta y Compostela<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El peso est\u00e1 en su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde mayo de 2024. Si se hacen los c\u00e1lculos en pesos en lugar de d\u00f3lares, las ganancias de precios del a\u00f1o pasado en Puerto Vallarta pr\u00e1cticamente desaparecen, lo que explica la ca\u00edda de 45% en las transacciones cerradas mejor que cualquier otra cosa.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20423,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-del-mercado"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The peso is at its strongest since May 2024. 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