By Neft Román — Legacy Vallarta Realty
Storm forecasts change every few hours. This post reflects the information available as of 12:00 PM Central Time on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (NHC Intermediate Advisory 17A). Check the official sources listed below for the latest advisory before you make any decision.
Official update, 12:00 PM Central Time, Sunday, October 11, 2026: the National Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Warning in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, and for Las Islas Marías. Cabo Corrientes, Banderas Bay and Puerto Vallarta are inside that stretch of coast. A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected in that area. The NHC says hurricane conditions are likely in the southern part of the warning area, spreading north later today into Monday. This advisory made no changes to the warning. Please read the full advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Protección Civil Jalisco.
My phone has been busy since last night. Hurricane Simon is in the Pacific, and a lot of screenshots with dramatic maps are going around. Some of them are undated, and some are a day or two old. So here is a calm, plain summary of what the official forecasts say right now, and what I would do with the time we have.
Where Simon Is and Where It Is Forecast to Go
As of NHC Intermediate Advisory 17A (12:00 PM Central Time on Sunday, October 11), Simon is a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). The center was about 65 miles (100 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes and 85 miles (140 km) west-northwest of Manzanillo, moving north-northwest at about 7 mph (11 km/h). The NHC expects Simon to pass very near the west-central Mexican coast this afternoon and tonight, then stay close to the coast on Monday. Some weakening is possible, and more significant weakening could occur if the core moves fully onshore or over higher terrain, but Simon is still forecast to be a major hurricane near the coast today. Hurricane-force winds extend about 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds about 80 miles (130 km). The next complete advisory is due at 3:00 PM Central Time.
How close the center passes to the coast makes a big difference in what each neighborhood feels, so please check every new advisory.
What “Forecast Cone” Really Means
You will see the phrase “direct hit on Puerto Vallarta” online. Please read it as one possibility inside a cone, not as a decision the storm has already made. Forecast tracks three to five days out can be off by well over 100 miles, and the cone covers a long stretch of coast from Colima through Jalisco and Nayarit toward Sinaloa. With a Hurricane Warning now in effect for the Jalisco coast, including Banderas Bay, please follow the instructions of Protección Civil and stay calm and informed.
The bigger and more certain effects for our region are likely to be heavy rain, rough surf and rip currents. The NHC forecasts additional rain totals of 8 to 16 inches across southwestern Mexico through Monday, with isolated totals up to 30 inches possible in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, which can cause flooding and mudslides. The NHC also expects dangerous storm surge near and east of where the center reaches the coast. Swells are also expected to bring dangerous surf and rip currents along the coast over the next few days.
What I Would Do Today and Tomorrow, While It Is Calm
- Cash and fuel. Fill the tank and get some cash. Long lines at gas stations and card terminals going down are usually the first real inconvenience, well before any wind.
- Water, food and power. Drinking water, food that needs no cooking, any medications you take, batteries, and a charged power bank. Charge phones and laptops on Friday night.
- Clear the terrace and roof. Plants, umbrellas, chairs, grills and anything loose can become a hazard in strong gusts.
- Photograph everything. Take clear photos of your home, your vehicle and your key documents today, and keep copies in the cloud. If you ever need to file an insurance claim, you will be glad to have them.
- Know your shutoffs. Find the water shutoff and the electrical panel before you need them.
- Check your drains. Clean roof drains, balcony drains and gutters so rain has somewhere to go.
If You Own or Manage a Property Here
This is the part I get asked about most. If you own a condo, a house or a rental, a few steps now can save you a lot of stress. Tell your property manager or building administrator that you want to know the plan. Ask whether the building has shutters or storm protection, and who is responsible for putting them up. If you rent to guests, let them know what is happening and share the official sources below, so they do not rely on social media. If you are not in town, ask someone you trust to check the unit afterward. When the storm has passed, my guide on what to check in your Puerto Vallarta property after a storm walks through it step by step.
Cars and Insurance
- Move your car off low streets and away from big trees and loose roof edges. Arroyos and the usual flood corners around the bay fill quickly.
- Keep your tarjeta de circulación, policy number and your insurer’s emergency phone number somewhere dry, and take a photo of each.
- Read your policy before the weekend, not after. Find out whether it covers flooding and falling objects. Many basic, liability-only policies in Mexico do not.
- Never drive through moving water. Even a foot of it can push a car, and you cannot see what the road looks like underneath.
Where to Get Real Information
Use official sources: the National Hurricane Center, Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Conagua, and Protección Civil Jalisco. New advisories come out every few hours. If a map has no date and time on it, it is not information. Check the time stamp before you share anything.
If you are following this from Nayarit, Sinaloa or Baja California Sur, the same advice applies, since the forecast cone reaches further up the coast. I covered the last storm in Hurricane Rachel in Puerto Vallarta: your safety checklist, and many of those steps apply here too.
I will update this page if the picture changes in a meaningful way. If you are in Puerto Vallarta and have a question about your property, message me and I will help however I can.
This article is general information, not an emergency or insurance instruction. Follow the instructions of local civil protection authorities, and confirm your own insurance coverage with your insurer.
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Legacy Vallarta Realty — Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco.
— Neft Román, Legacy Vallarta Realty
Affiliate of AMPI Puerto Vallarta y Compostela
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